Forex Robots

Real Source: http://www.forexfraud.com/forex-articles/forex-robots-trade-signal-software.html

What is a forex robot? This is a kind of program developed by some high-school educated individual, which purports to be able to eliminate the human factor from trading entirely. Since programs, API’s, do not respond emotionally to market developments, we’re told that they possess a clear advantage over the human trader who is constrained by his natural disposition to shout, weep, laugh at sharp turns in the market. In this era of automation, the proponents of automated trading propose that we are fools to draw charts manually and to analyze every twist and turn of the market with eyes glued to the screen, especially when the computer can be programmed to do all these in our place and to do so with an efficiency that is impossible to match for a human being. Since everyone emphasizes the importance of discipline during trading decisions, of the crucial role of solid rules which are followed with punctuality and consistency, the creators of these programs submit that there is no better choice than leaving all the practical aspects of this task to an automated program.

In order to establish the validity of their claims and to demonstrate the purported prowess of the robot, the sellers of these curiosities will couple their sales letters with a large record of back testing data that shows the irrefutable power of automated trading – in hindsight. Very large profits with little drawdown, consistent gains over many trades all convince inexperienced traders that the Holy Grail is within reach finally. If only it were possible that Percival and Lady Guinevere were here, how merry everyone would be! But we will have to contend ourselves with the tremendous profits we’ll make while utilizing our new robot, which we bought for about $500.

But will we really make those great profits or are we just helping to fill the stomach of the bard for the entertainment value? What does a forex robot or an automated trading program really do? It must first establish some rules for the trade which will be in the form of some technical indicators or price patterns as evaluated by the computer. Then it must apply these rules for profiting from market events, as signals are generated throughout the trading day, and into the future. What does the back testing prove? If the rules were applied in the past, the program would have registered profits. What must the program do? It must make profits for us in the future because historical profits may make us smile, but they will not add a penny in our pockets – unless we’re selling a forex robot.

Now, if the program established potential success in the past, why can’t we expect the same results to be repeated in the future? Since the charts look very similar on the whole, why can’t we expect those back testing results to be transformed to future profits? There’s this little disclaimer at the bottom of every legitimate forex broker’s webpage, which states that past performance does not guarantee future results. What does that mean? It means that financial markets are chaotic processes in which the prevailing rules change all the time according to dynamics which are not well understood as yet. In other words, the technical rules that are valid today will not be valid tomorrow. The technical methods that generate profits today will not do so in the future, because the mathematical processes that define the price action change all the time. Most definitely, there’s no single mathematical process or formula that can be applied to generate consistent profits in the market. All that the back testing results prove is that at some point in the past, there were technical methods the use of which could be profitable for the trader. But we want to know what the successful technical method will be tomorrow, not two days ago, as we don’t own a time machine that will deliver us back in time to trade the markets with the hindsight we possess.

And if you have any difficulty in accepting the above statement, consider your own experiences in the forex market: How many times have you seen that a technical indicator, a trading strategy, a combination of technical tools that worked five minutes ago, is unsuccessful just a short while later? Now wouldn’t you laugh at yourself if you had taken the combination that had worked five minutes ago and declared it to be a universally valid tool for all time? We know for sure that regardless of how successful our technical configuration was five minutes ago, it will fail regularly in the future because of the random nature of price movements.

But some will contradict us and say:

“The back testing results are used to choose the trading systems that were consistently successful over a much longer time than five minutes. You’re simplifying the methods and tools of the creators of these systems grossly, and putting yourself in a ridiculous situation by the simplicity of your argument.”

To that we will respond by reminding the traders of the fractal nature of the price graphics. In other words, the price action has a strange tendency to repeat itself with very subtle changes over a long period of time. The patterns observed in a five-minute chart can still be identified in a five-year chart. The randomness, unpredictability of the price formations are no different on five-year long charts than they are on five minute charts and the length of the back testing period is of very little consequence as a result. If a trading robot can be shown to trade successfully on five minute charts only on a consistent basis, that would be a powerful hint of its eventual applicability to many more time frames too. There has never been such a forex robot and if there will be one in the future, it will definitely use very different methods for trading the markets.