Euro's long term uptrend started in Feb 1981 at 0.5039 and is unfolding as a (A)-(B)-(C) move with (A): 0.8433 (Feb 1993), (B): 0.5682 (May 2000) and
Friday, September 17, 2010
EUR/GBP – 0.8378
Recent wave: v of wave 3 has possibly ended at 0.8067 but wave 4 should hold below 0.8600
Trend: Down
Original strategy :
Sell at 0.8450, Target: 0.8300, Stop: 0.8510
New strategy :
Sell at 0.8450, Target: 0.8300, Stop: 0.8510
As euro has risen again after intra-day brief retreat to 0.8310, suggesting near term upside risk remains for the corrective rise from 0.8143 to bring stronger retracement of the fall from 0.8532 to 0.8415/20 and possibly towards 0.8450/60, however, as wave 4 top has been formed at 0.8532, upside would be limited and bring another retreat retreated later. A drop below 0.8300/10 would be the first sign that top has been formed, bring weakness to 0.8250/60, however, only break of support at 0.8202 would confirm rebound from 0.8143 is over, then retest of this level would follow.
In view of this, we are inclined to sell euro on next rise. Above 0.8500/10 would risk a retest of 0.8532 but only break there would signal only a leg of 4 has ended at 0.8532, followed by b leg at 0.8143, then c leg of 4 may bring stronger rebound towards 0.8590/00.
On the downside, only break of support at 0.8143 would retain our bearishness and signal wave 5 decline from 0.8532 has resumed and extend weakness to 0.8100/10.
Our preferred count is that, after forming a major top at 0.9805 (wave V), (A)-(B)-(C) correction is unfolding with (A) leg ended at 0.8400 (A: 0.8637, B: 0.9491 and 5-waver C ended at 0.8400. Wave (B) has ended at 0.9413 and impulsive wave (C) is now unfolding with 1: 0.8603, 2: 0.9150 and wave v of wave 3 has ended at 0.8067 and the wave 4 correction has either ended at 0.8532 or may bring stronger retracement but reckon 0.8603 (wave 1 trough) would cap upside, bring subsequent selloff in wave 5.
No update on 17 Sept and next update on Monday 20 Sept
0 comments:
Post a Comment