Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/CHF – Buy at 1.0050

USD/CHF - 1.0132

Most recent candlesticks pattern : N/A
Trend : Down

Tenkan-Sen level :1.0086
Kijun-Sen level :1.0085
Ichimoku cloud top :1.0045
Ichimoku cloud bottom :1.0009

Original strategy :

Buy at 1.0075, Target: 1.0200, Stop: 1.0025

New strategy :

Buy at 1.0050, Target: 1.0190, Stop: 0.9995

As dollar has retreated after intra-day rally to 1.0171, suggesting minor consolidation would be seen, however, as temporary low has been formed at 0.9933 earlier this week, downside should be limited to 1.0045-49 (previous resistance turned support and current level of the Ichimoku cloud top) and renewed buying interest should emerge there and bring another rise. Above said resistance would bring retracement of recent decline to 1.0210 minor resistance, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 1.0250/55 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0451 to 0.9933) and price should falter well below resistance at 1.0278.

In view of this, we are looking to buy dollar on pullback, only below intra-day support at 0.9997 would abort and signal the correction from 0.9933 has ended, bring resumption of decline for retest of 0.9933.

No update on 17 Sept and next update on Monday 20 Sept.

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Euro's long term uptrend started in Feb 1981 at 0.5039 and is unfolding as a (A)-(B)-(C) move with (A): 0.8433 (Feb 1993), (B): 0.5682 (May 2000) and

Real Source: http://www.actionforex.com/trading-signals/elliott-wave-daily/trade-idea:-eur%10gbp-%E2%80%93-sell-at-0.8450-20100916122491/

EUR/GBP – 0.8378

Recent wave: v of wave 3 has possibly ended at 0.8067 but wave 4 should hold below 0.8600

Trend: Down

Original strategy :

Sell at 0.8450, Target: 0.8300, Stop: 0.8510

New strategy :

Sell at 0.8450, Target: 0.8300, Stop: 0.8510

As euro has risen again after intra-day brief retreat to 0.8310, suggesting near term upside risk remains for the corrective rise from 0.8143 to bring stronger retracement of the fall from 0.8532 to 0.8415/20 and possibly towards 0.8450/60, however, as wave 4 top has been formed at 0.8532, upside would be limited and bring another retreat retreated later. A drop below 0.8300/10 would be the first sign that top has been formed, bring weakness to 0.8250/60, however, only break of support at 0.8202 would confirm rebound from 0.8143 is over, then retest of this level would follow.

In view of this, we are inclined to sell euro on next rise. Above 0.8500/10 would risk a retest of 0.8532 but only break there would signal only a leg of 4 has ended at 0.8532, followed by b leg at 0.8143, then c leg of 4 may bring stronger rebound towards 0.8590/00.

On the downside, only break of support at 0.8143 would retain our bearishness and signal wave 5 decline from 0.8532 has resumed and extend weakness to 0.8100/10.

Our preferred count is that, after forming a major top at 0.9805 (wave V), (A)-(B)-(C) correction is unfolding with (A) leg ended at 0.8400 (A: 0.8637, B: 0.9491 and 5-waver C ended at 0.8400. Wave (B) has ended at 0.9413 and impulsive wave (C) is now unfolding with 1: 0.8603, 2: 0.9150 and wave v of wave 3 has ended at 0.8067 and the wave 4 correction has either ended at 0.8532 or may bring stronger retracement but reckon 0.8603 (wave 1 trough) would cap upside, bring subsequent selloff in wave 5.

No update on 17 Sept and next update on Monday 20 Sept

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EUR/GBP Elliott Wave Analysis

EUR/GBP – 0.8372

EUR/GBP – Wave (A) from 0.9805 top ended at 0.8400 and (B) ended at 0.9413

Although the single currency has rebounded after finding good support at 0.8202, if our view that wave 4 correction has ended at 0.8532 is correct, upside should be limited to 0.8410/20 and bring another decline later. Break of said support at 0.8202 would add credence to this view and bring retest of 0.8143, however, a daily close below there is needed to retain bearishness and bring further weakness to 0.8100 in wave 5, then retest of recent low at 0.8067 and later test of psychological support at 0.8000.

Our latest preferred count is that the wave V of a 5-wave series from 0.5682 ended at 0.9805 earlier and major A-B-C correction is unfolding with A: 0.8637, B: 0.9491 and wave C is a 5-waver with 1: 0.9158, 2: 0.9418, extended wave 3 ended at 0.8576 followed by wave 4 at 0.8868. The wave 5 has ended at 0.8400, this also mark the end of larger degree wave C as well as (A).

The rebound from there to 0.9413 is the wave (B) which followed by wave (C) and the break-down is 1: 0.8603, 2: 0.9150 and wave 3 has possibly ended at 0.8067 and a leg of wave 4 correction has met indicated upside target at 0.8481 and the retreat from 0.8532 suggests A leg has ended and B leg may bring weakness to aforesaid downside target but 0.8150 should contain downside. Looking ahead, a daily close below 0.8100 would signal the wave 5 of (C) is underway and bring retest of 0.8067, then psychological support at 0.8000 and possibly to 0.7900 but reckon 0.7744 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.5682 to 0.9805) would hold.

On the upside, above 0.8490/00 would prolong consolidation and risk test of 0.8532 but only break there would signal c leg of wave 4 is underway for stronger recovery, however, price should falter below wave 1 bottom at 0.8603.

Recommendation: Hold short entered at 0.8400 for 0.8150 with stop above 0.8490.

Euro's long term uptrend started in Feb 1981 at 0.5039 and is unfolding as a (A)-(B)-(C) move with (A): 0.8433 (Feb 1993), (B): 0.5682 (May 2000) and impulsive wave (C) should have ended at 0.9805 with wave III ended at 0.7254 (May 2003), triangle wave IV at 0.6536 (23 Jan 2007) and wave V as well as wave (C) has ended at 0.9805.
Therefore major correction has commenced from 0.9805 and weakness to 0.8230 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 0.5682 to 0.9805) would be seen first, then to 0.8000 and later 0.7744 (50% Fibonacci retracement).

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Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Buy at 110.00

Real Source: http://www.actionforex.com/trading-signals/elliott-wave-daily/trade-idea:-eur%10jpy-%E2%80%93-buy-at-110.00-20100916122456/

EUR/JPY – 111.73

Recent wave: wave v has possibly ended at 107.30

Trend: down

Original strategy :

Buy at 109.50, Target: 111.50, Stop: 108.80

New strategy :

Buy at 110.00, Target: 112.00, Stop: 109.40

As the currency pair has maintained a firm undertone after early rally caused by MOF’s intervention, adding credence to our view that the wave 5 has indeed ended at 105.44 earlier and upside bias remains for further gain to previous support at 112.00/10, however, reckon 112.47 (1.618 times projection of 105.44 to 109.56 measuring from 105.80) would hold due to near term overbought condition.

In view of this, we are looking to buy euro on pullback but at a higher level. Below 109.50/56 (previous resistance) would defer and risk retracement to 108.90/00 but reckon 108.25/30 would hold.

Our preferred count is that the decline from 139.26 is wave C and is sub-divided into (a): 127.00, (b) 138.49 and wave (c) has commenced from there with a diagonal wave 1 (i: 126.95, ii: 134.37, iii: 120.70, iv: 125.24 and then wave v at 119.66). The rebound from 119.66 to 127.95 was an a-b-c wave 2 and wave 3 is taking place from 127.95 with minor wave i at 122.37 and wave ii at 125.97 and minor wave iii has ended at 110.49 and wave iv ended at 122.29, wave v ended at 107.30 as the wave 3, wave 4 has ended at 114.74 and wave 5 has ended at 105.44.

On the bigger picture, we are treating the rally to 169.97 as end of wave A, then selloff from 169.97 (July 2008) to 112.08 is wave (A) of B instead of end of entire wave B and then the rebound from there to 139.26 is wave (B), hence, wave (C) has commended from there with minor wave 1 ended at 119.66 and wave 2 at 127.95. This wave (C) of B should be limited to 105.00 and psychological support at 100.00 should remain intact.

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Foreign Exchange (Forex) Market Existence

Real Source: http://www.forex2u.com/forex-market-existence.html

Foreign Exchange (Forex) Market

Presently, there are various kinds of financial market, it is divided into: Stock market, interest market (including bond, commercial bill and so on), gold market (including gold, platinum, silver), futures market (including grain, cotton and kapok, oil and so on), option market and foreign exchange market or forex marketand so on.

The foreign exchange market is a place to trade foreign exchange currency, or it is also a place for the transaction of all foreign currency. The foreign exchange market therefore is existence, because of:

Trade and investment
Import and export business, people pays one kind of currency when doing business, but when earns another kind of currency when receive the commodity. This means that, when settling account, business people will pay and receive different currencies. Therefore, they must convert the currencies that they received into the currencies that they could buy commodities. With this similar, when buying a foreign property a company must use the concerned country's currency to make payment, therefore, it needs to convert the domestic currency is concerned country's currency.

Speculation
Currencies exchange rates could fluctuate according to the demand and supply between two currencies. A Forex trader buys up one kind of currency in an exchange rate, but up casts this currency in another more advantageous exchange rate, he may gain. Speculation has occupied most of the Forex market.

Hedging
Due to the fluctuation between two currencies, those companies who owns foreign asset (for example factory), when these companies convert these properties into cost country currencies, there consist of certain risks. When the value of a foreign asset which is estimated based on foreign currencies remained unchanged, if the exchange rate changes, when converting this property value according to the domestic currency, there could be profit and loss. The company may eliminate such hidden risk through hedging. This carries out a foreign currency trading, its transaction result just counterbalances the foreign currency property profit and loss which produces by the exchange rate change.

Forex Market Development

The history of the Forex market as an international capital speculation market is much shorter compared the stock, the gold, the stock, the interest market, but it is developing in an astonishing speed. Today, the foreign exchange market daily trading volume has amounted to 150 billion US dollars, it’s scale has gone far beyond the stock, the stock and other finance commodity markets, it has became the world's most biggest sole finance market and the also the speculation market. Since the birth of the foreign exchange market, the fluctuation of the exchange rate of the Forex market is becoming bigger. In September 1985, 1 US dollar exchanged 220 Japanese Yen, but in May 1986, 1 US dollar only could exchange 160 Japanese Yen, in 8 months, the Japanese Yen has revalued 27%. In recent years, the foreign exchange market wave amplitude has been bigger, on September 8, 1992, 1 pound exchanged 2.0100 US dollars, on November 10, 1 pound exchanged 1.5080 US dollars, in the short two months, the pound exchanged US dollar exchange rate to fall more than 5,000, depreciated 25%. Not only that, presently, everyday the fluctuation of the exchange rate of the Forex market enlarges unceasingly, within a day the rise and drop 2% to 3% is commonly seen. On September 16, 1992, the pound exchanged US dollar from 1.8755 to fall to 1.7850, the pound on first lowers 5%.

Due to the large fluctuation of the Forex market, it has created more opportunities for the investor, attracted more and more investors to join this ranks.

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What Is The Difference Between Forex and Futures?

Real Source: http://www.forex2u.com/Forex-VS-Futures.html

1. A Forex trader could trade more transaction compared to the futures market (the trading volume could be a times larger), and the risk will be strictly under control. The trading volume of the Forex market is 46 times larger compared to the futures market, moreover Forex traders could make more profit from the Forex market due to the larger trading volume (the transaction volume is a few times larger), the REFCO Switzerland rich transaction platform allowed transaction between 1-100 times to be carry on, moreover a Forex trader could decide his or her own transaction amount, for example: Your account has $30,000, the basic transaction unit is each $1,000 (which transaction amount in $1.00, million), namely, so the proportion of the margin of each transaction unit is 100:1.


2. The risk of the Forex trader is under control, such margin call will not happen compared to futures, through the Forex trading system, your risk will receive the strict limit, even if your margin if lower then the deposit required, the Forex trading system will automatically settle your position, this means even if a Forex trader suffered losses, moreover if the market is suffering from a disaster fluctuation, your loss could not surpass your account amount. In order to understand the advantages, please apply for the demo account to carry on the complete zero risk.


3. A Forex trader will receive a large limitation of liquidation and a relatively fair market because the trading volume of the Forex market is large and it is also the largest liquidation market in the world. At present the trading volume in the Forex market is 140 billion Dollars, such big market will completely digest your transaction cash.


4. A Forex trader may do 24 hours transactions and other markets are different, the Forex market is a 24 hour linkages market, it starts from every Sunday before dawn Australian Sydney market, substandard collect the transaction center Singapore, Tokyo, London, Frankfurt to New York continuously to open, such linkage market enable you to do 24 hours transactions, also provide flexibility for Forex trader to do transaction.

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Crown Forex – A Swiss-based Forex Broker Scam?

Real Source: http://www.forexfraud.com/forex-articles/crown-forex.html

Swiss-based forex broker Crown Forex will probably go down in investment history as just another disreputable forex fraud. Although, with a fancy Swiss address like:

St-Hubert 38, 2854 Bassecourt, Switzerland,

you might well have expected the company to be similar to Dukascopy or another reputable forex broking company of that caliber.

Nevertheless, that address belonged to the now defunct Crown Forex that went bankrupt in 2009, perhaps taking many of its clients’ forex brokerage accounts with them.

Unfortunately for its duped account holders, Crown Forex was in a great position just a few short years ago, as far as forex brokers were concerned. Crown Forex was apparently a top choice among brokers, having its own trading platform, a large client base and according to some, a considerable amount of money in the bank.

In addition to Crown Forex having an office in Switzerland and being a member of the ARIF or Association Romande des Intermédiaires Financiers — a Swiss-based regulatory agency specializing in the prevention of money laundering — the company must have pretty much looked “good as gold”.

Crown Forex: What went Wrong

Crown Forex seemed to be a legitimate forex broking operation until September of 2008. This was the initial period during which its customers began having serious problems with the fund withdrawal process.

Many of the forex broker’s clients had deposited in excess of $50,000 into their accounts, and they were having difficulty getting their money back, or even an answer from the Swiss-based firm.

Although some people with accounts were still able to get their money out at this early stage, many accounts were not refunded. Furthermore, since December of 2008, all funds held in accounts with Crown Forex have been unavailable to Crown Forex clients.

Basically, at that time in late 2008, the Swiss Federal Banking Commission or SFBC began investigating Crown Forex. The Commission stated that the company had no authorization from the SFBC for any activity in the financial sector in Switzerland.

By May of 2009, Crown Forex was being liquidated by Swiss regulators, and by December of 2009, a lawsuit was filed against Crown Forex by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or SEC.

Crown Forex and the SEC Lawsuit

The SEC lawsuit in which Crown Forex is named as a relief defendant, along with twelve other forex, precious metals and futures funds, is primarily against two individuals, Trevor G. Cook and Patrick J. Kiley.

Other defendants in the SEC lawsuit include the “shell companies” under Cook’s and Kiley’s control that were UBS Diversified Growth LLC, Universal Brokerage FX Management, LLC and Oxford Global Advisors LLC.

According to the SEC, these two enterprising Minnesota residents raised in excess of over $190 million from 1,000 individual investors and promised them an annual return of between 10% and 12%.

The accounts were to be segregated individually, but instead the funds were pooled in bank trading accounts under the names of the shell companies that these two people controlled.

Around July of 2008, Cook and Kiley began advising their clients that their funds would be invested in segregated accounts at Crown Forex, S.A., a company based in Switzerland. The pair instructed their clients to fill out the appropriate new Crown Forex account forms and to issue checks made payable to Crown Forex for their account balances.

In essence, Cook and Kiley were telling their clients that their money, to the tune of $79 million, was now going to be invested via Crown Forex for forex trading. Nevertheless, what these two were in fact doing was depositing the money into a number of U.S. bank accounts controlled by them.

The Truth About Crown Forex Came Out

Eventually, the truth came out and Crown Forex wound up getting liquidated, as the apparent scam unfolded and the company stopped paying out the principal or profits in their customer accounts. Other companies involved with Cook and Kiley were also taken down, such as UniversalBrokerageFX.com, also known as UBFX.

Furthermore, Crown Forex had the following message posted on their website back in July of 2008 that now reads as if they were warning people about the impending potential loss of their funds:

“CROWN FOREX SA welcome all investors from all around the world, and we strongly recommend you to read the risk disclosure accompanying trading in the international financial markets before you proceed in the account opening process.”

The website then went on to warn potential investors even further:

“Dear investor, you have to be aware, and fully acknowledged that the possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your deposited funds and therefore you should not speculate with capital that you can not afford to lose, totally or partially. And you should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent advisor if you have any doubts. Past returns are not indicative of future results.”

Thanks to the company being regulated in Switzerland and the SEC’s involvement in the case against them in the United States, some probability exists that people who trusted this company may receive some part of their money back.

Nevertheless, many people who had accounts with Crown Forex were probably put off of trading forex for eternity after placing their life savings into a forex trading account with the ill-fated broker.

Suffering this kind of gut-wrenching loss just does not sound like fun, so remember to research your forex brokers very well, or your money might grow legs and walk away as the scammed account holders at Crown Forex have now discovered is entirely possible even if the broker does have a fancy Swiss address.

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